Congress has two weeks before the government shuts down without funding and negotiations continued this week on a short-term funding package.  Last week, Speaker Johnson (R-LA) abruptly pulled his continuing resolution (CR) from a scheduled floor vote, conceding that it lacked sufficient support to pass.  About a dozen Republicans have announced publicly that they will not vote for the measure; estimates are that perhaps a dozen more will vote against it if it comes to the floor.  The Speaker has declined to pivot to a different strategy, instead tasking Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN) to try to build support for the six-month funding measure that would also attach the SAVE Act, a bill that would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.  Speaker Johnson can afford to lose only four Republican votes if his entire conference is present, perhaps a few more if some of the five moderate Democrats who previously voted for the SAVE Act decide to re-demonstrate their commitment to combatting election fraud in advance of their own tough re-elects.  It continues to prove very difficult for Republican leadership to unite the fractious Republican conference on spending measures.

If opposition to the current CR remains entrenched, Johnson has limited options, all of which carry significant downsides.  Several factions of the GOP would oppose a six-month CR that strips out the SAVE Act, including those who want to highlight voter fraud issues in advance of the election and defense hawks who insist that the military cannot continue at current funding levels for that long, and it would not attract required levels of Democratic support to overcome that vote deficit.  A shorter- term CR that includes the SAVE Act would not garner sufficient Republican votes to pass on a party-line vote, and even if it could pass the House with Democratic support, it would be dead-on-arrival in the Senate, resulting in a politically risky government shutdown or forcing the House GOP to backtrack from that negotiating position quickly.  A short-term CR that does not include the SAVE Act seems to be the only viable path forward.  However, the end game of that approach is most likely a Lame Duck negotiation of a bipartisan omnibus spending package that will enrage conservatives right around the time that the conference meets to choose its leadership for the next Congress.

Reportedly, the House Republican leadership team is at odds over strategy, and members of the team are maneuvering to cast blame among each other for the situation.  Regardless of whether House Republicans retain their majority in the next Congress, Johnson is in a tough position to hold on to his speakership.

The House voted on “anti-woke” messaging legislation to protect free speech on college and university campuses (H.R. 3724); prohibit the SEC from compelling ESG investment policies (H.R. 4790); require retirement plan fiduciaries to prioritize returns over ESG factors when making investment decisions (H.R. 5339); and disapprove a Biden administration rule to more strictly regulate passenger vehicle tailpipe emissions and accelerate the transition to EVs (H.J.Res. 136).

The Senate voted on Biden Administration nominees and on the Right to IVF Act (S. 4445), a bill that would create a federal right to access IVF and expand insurance coverage for the procedure.  Senate Republicans united to block consideration of the bill in June, but Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) is bringing it up again following former President Trump’s recent statements in support of mandating insurance coverage for IVF.